중앙은행은 이번 세대에서 가장 급격한 물가 상승을 막기 위해 강력한 조치를 취할 수 있다는 점을 보여줬다. 중앙은행은 개인과 기업의 구매력을 보호하기 위해 나섰다. 아직 물가 안정의 마지막 구간이 남았지만 끝은 멀지 않았다.
인플레이션은 물가상승에 대비할 수 있는 능력이 취약한 사람에게 큰 피해를 준다. 급격한 생활비 급등을 해결하기 위해서는 개입이 필요했다. 물가 안정을 위해 중앙은행들은 수십 년 만에 가장 크고 동시다발적인 글로벌 통화 긴축에 나섰다.
이번 긴축 사이클은 정치권으로부터 독립되어 있는 기관이 물가 안정의 파수꾼 역할을 하는 것이 얼마나 중요한지 보여줬다. 중앙은행과 정부의 적당한 거리는 인플레이션을 낮추기 위해 정치적으로 인기가 없는 정책을 선택하는 데 도움이 됐다.
물론 대외여건이 도움이 됐다. 세계공급망 경색의 완화와 원자재 가격 하락이 물가 둔화에 기여했다. 하지만 우리는 1970년대에 물가 급등에 대응하지 않으면 고물가가 고착화한다는 걸 배웠다. 중앙은행은 자신들의 책무에 따라 단호하게 행동함으로써 이를 막아냈다.
중앙은행이 신속하고 결단력 있는 결정을 하지 않았다면 물가 안정으로 되돌아가는 과정에서 성장과 고용에 심각한 타격이 있었을 것이다. 아직 인플레이션에 대한 경계를 늦출 때는 아니다. 인플레이션은 낮아졌지만 몇몇 부문에서는 충분히 낮지 않다. 어느 경기든 마지막 몇 분 사이 역전이 벌어질 수 있다. 다른 가격에 비해 서비스 비용과 가계소득은 팬데믹 이전의 추세에 비해 낮다. 이 항목들이 추세를 빠른 속도로 따라잡을 경우 물가에 새로운 상방 압력이 될 수 있다. 따라서 중앙은행은 지금의 정책경로를 유지해야 한다.
이같은 팬데믹 이후의 인플레이션 급등은 중앙은행의 정책을 시험에 들게 한 일련의 사건 중 가장 최근의 것일 뿐이다. 국제결제은행(BIS)은 최근 연례경제보고서를 통해 이번 세기의 주요 금융 위기 및 코로나로 인한 전례없는 세계경제의 충격에 어떠한 정책적 대응이 있었는지를 살펴봤다.
BIS의 분석에 따르면 지난 25년의 경험에서 얻을 수 있는 가장 큰 교훈은 통화정책이 무엇을 할 수 있고, 무엇을 할 수 없는지 인식해야 한다는 점이다.
이 기간 동안 통화정책은 그 힘을 증명했다. 중앙은행이 전력으로 유동성을 공급하는 긴급 조치를 취함으로써 금융 시스템을 안정화할 수 있었다. 기업과 가계로의 신용 흐름을 지원하고, 경제가 급격한 침체에 빠지는 것을 막을 수 있었다. 이러한 경험을 통해 중앙은행이 물가 안정뿐 아니라 금융 안정에도 중요한 역할을 하는 주체라는 것을 알게 되었다.
하지만 이와 함께 통화정책이 물가를 미세 조정할 수는 없다는 교훈도 얻었다. 물가가 급격히 오를 때 중앙은행의 대응은 필수적이다. 하지만 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 목표치를 소폭 하회할 경우에는 이런 조치가 영향을 주지 못하거나, 역효과를 내기도 했다. 인플레이션 목표는 '집착'이 아니라 '지침'이 돼야한다.
과도하게 낮은 물가를 끌어 올리기 위한 목적의 강력한 통화 완화 정책은 오래 지속할수록 효과가 떨어진다. 원치 않는 부작용도 낳을 수 있는데, 예를 들어 역사적으로 최고 수준까지 높아진 부채의 누적, 시장과 투자에 대한 왜곡 등이다. 이는 또 중앙은행이 정책을 운용할 수 있는 여지를 좁게 만들고, 경기부양책에서 벗어나는 것과 중앙은행과 정부 정책을 분리하는 것을 어렵게 만든다.
정책은 일관되게 추진될 때 더 효과적이다. 중앙은행은 지금도 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 노력하고 있지만, 팬데믹 동안 전세계적으로 도입된 확장적 재정정책은 경기를 부양하고 인플레이션을 유발함으로써 중앙은행의 물가안정 노력과 반대로 작용할 수도 있다.
마지막 교훈은 중앙은행 혼자서는 지속적인 경제성장과 번영을 가져올 수 없다는 점이다. 더 밝은 미래를 위한 기초를 다지기 위해서는 정책입안자, 특히 정부의 역할이 필요하다.
지속적인 경제성장의 혜택을 보기 위해서 정부는 예산을 건전하게 운영하는 쪽으로 서둘러 전환하고, 미래를 준비해야 한다. 공공부채의 증가를 억제하고 금리가 팬데믹 이전의 매우 낮은 수준으로 돌아가지 않을 수 있다는 점을 받아들여야 한다. 부채의 지속가능성은 통화의 대비 가치를 안정적으로 유지하고, 물가와 금융안정을 달성하기 위한 핵심 요소다.
장기적으로 보면, 생활 수준을 지속적으로 높이고, 경제적 후생을 증진하며 국민들에게 안정감을 주기 위해서 구조개혁이 필수적이다. 이를 위해서는 경쟁을 촉진하고, 유연성을 높이고, 혁신을 자극할 수 있는 지속적인 조치가 필요하다. 희소한 공공 자금은 인공지능(AI) 혁명 등 기술 발전과 기후 변화와 같은 새로운 현실에 경제가 적응하는 것을 지원하기 위해 사용돼야 한다. 탄탄한 기반이 있어야 미래를 만들어 갈 수 있다.
원문 :
Central banks have shown they can take forceful action to head off the most dramatic increase in inflation in a generation. They took steps to protect the purchasing power of people and firms. Although the last mile to return to price stability is not yet complete, the end is well in sight.
Inflation hurts most those who are least able to hedge against it. Intervention was needed to remedy what seemed a relentless surge in the cost of living. To restore price stability, central banks unleashed the biggest and most synchronised global monetary policy tightening in decades.
This episode has shown the value of having independent institutions outside the political process as the guardians of price stability. Their ability to operate at arm’s length from governments helps central banks take what can be unpalatable and politically unpopular decisions in the interests of wrangling inflation down .
To be sure, circumstances helped. Recovering trade logistics and falling commodity prices supported disinflation. However, we saw in the 1970s how a burst of inflation, if not countered, can trigger a shift to a high inflation mindset. By acting with determination, in line with their mandates, central banks have prevented high inflation from becoming entrenched. Without prompt and decisive central bank action, restoring price stability could have come at a significant hit to growth and jobs.
Now is not the time to let down our guard. Inflation is lower, yet not low enough in some places. Upsets can come in the final minutes of any game. Compared to other prices, the cost of services and take-home pay are both lagging pre-pandemic trends and a rapid catch-up could see renewed upward pressure on inflation. Central banks must stay the course.
The post-pandemic inflation spike was only the latest in a series of tests for central bank policies. In our latest Annual Economic Report, we at the Bank for International Settlements look at the tumultuous period since the turn of this century, including major financial crises and the unprecedented experiment in turning the global economy on and off again due to the pandemic.
We reflect on the lessons learned and the implications for the future. Above all, our analysis shows that a key lesson from the past quarter-century is the need to recognise what monetary policy can and cannot do.
This period demonstrated the power of monetary policy. It showed that central bank emergency actions, deploying their firepower to ensure liquidity keeps flowing, can stabilise the financial system, support the flow of credit to firms and households, and prevent the economy from going into a tailspin. We’ve learned that central banks are important players for financial as well as price stability.
However, we’ve also learned that monetary policy cannot fine-tune inflation. It is vital that central banks act when inflation overshoots. But such measures are less warranted, and may even be counterproductive, when inflation sits a few fractions of a percent below central bank targets. Inflation targets should be a guide, not an obsession.
Exceptionally strong and prolonged monetary easing aimed at stimulating too-low inflation becomes less effective the longer it lasts and can generate unwelcome side effects. These include a build-up of debt, now at historic peaks, and distortions to markets and investments. It also narrows central banks’ room for policy manoeuvre, making it harder to exit from stimulus measures and detangle central bank and government policies.
Policies work better as part of a coherent whole. Even now, with central banks still trying to ensure inflation stays under control, we see that around the world, budget giveaways brought in during the pandemic are at risk of acting at cross-purposes by stimulating the economy and stoking inflation.
A final lesson is that central banks alone cannot deliver a durable increase in economic growth and prosperity. Laying the foundation for a brighter economic future requires actions from other policymakers, especially governments.
To reap benefits in the longer term, governments must act with haste to put budgets on a sound footing and ready their economies for the future. They must cut short the rise in public debt and accept that interest rates may not return to super low pre-pandemic levels. Debt sustainability is key for both price and financial stability as well as keeping the value of the currency steady.
In the long run, structural reforms are key to sustainably lift the standard of living, improve economic well-being and give people a sense of security. This means taking lasting measures such as promoting competition, enhancing flexibility, and spurring innovation. Scarce public funds should support the economy’s adjustment to new realities such as climate and technological change, including the artificial intelligence revolution. Only a solid foundation allows us to build for the future.
Central banks have shown they can take forceful action to head off the most dramatic increase in inflation in a generation. They took steps to protect the purchasing power of people and firms. Although the last mile to return to price stability is not yet complete, the end is well in sight.
Inflation hurts most those who are least able to hedge against it. Intervention was needed to remedy what seemed a relentless surge in the cost of living. To restore price stability, central banks unleashed the biggest and most synchronised global monetary policy tightening in decades.
This episode has shown the value of having independent institutions outside the political process as the guardians of price stability. Their ability to operate at arm’s length from governments helps central banks take what can be unpalatable and politically unpopular decisions in the interests of wrangling inflation down .
To be sure, circumstances helped. Recovering trade logistics and falling commodity prices supported disinflation. However, we saw in the 1970s how a burst of inflation, if not countered, can trigger a shift to a high inflation mindset. By acting with determination, in line with their mandates, central banks have prevented high inflation from becoming entrenched. Without prompt and decisive central bank action, restoring price stability could have come at a significant hit to growth and jobs.
Now is not the time to let down our guard. Inflation is lower, yet not low enough in some places. Upsets can come in the final minutes of any game. Compared to other prices, the cost of services and take-home pay are both lagging pre-pandemic trends and a rapid catch-up could see renewed upward pressure on inflation. Central banks must stay the course.
The post-pandemic inflation spike was only the latest in a series of tests for central bank policies. In our latest Annual Economic Report, we at the Bank for International Settlements look at the tumultuous period since the turn of this century, including major financial crises and the unprecedented experiment in turning the global economy on and off again due to the pandemic.
We reflect on the lessons learned and the implications for the future. Above all, our analysis shows that a key lesson from the past quarter-century is the need to recognise what monetary policy can and cannot do.
This period demonstrated the power of monetary policy. It showed that central bank emergency actions, deploying their firepower to ensure liquidity keeps flowing, can stabilise the financial system, support the flow of credit to firms and households, and prevent the economy from going into a tailspin. We’ve learned that central banks are important players for financial as well as price stability.
However, we’ve also learned that monetary policy cannot fine-tune inflation. It is vital that central banks act when inflation overshoots. But such measures are less warranted, and may even be counterproductive, when inflation sits a few fractions of a percent below central bank targets. Inflation targets should be a guide, not an obsession.
Exceptionally strong and prolonged monetary easing aimed at stimulating too-low inflation becomes less effective the longer it lasts and can generate unwelcome side effects. These include a build-up of debt, now at historic peaks, and distortions to markets and investments. It also narrows central banks’ room for policy manoeuvre, making it harder to exit from stimulus measures and detangle central bank and government policies.
Policies work better as part of a coherent whole. Even now, with central banks still trying to ensure inflation stays under control, we see that around the world, budget giveaways brought in during the pandemic are at risk of acting at cross-purposes by stimulating the economy and stoking inflation.
A final lesson is that central banks alone cannot deliver a durable increase in economic growth and prosperity. Laying the foundation for a brighter economic future requires actions from other policymakers, especially governments.
To reap benefits in the longer term, governments must act with haste to put budgets on a sound footing and ready their economies for the future. They must cut short the rise in public debt and accept that interest rates may not return to super low pre-pandemic levels. Debt sustainability is key for both price and financial stability as well as keeping the value of the currency steady.
In the long run, structural reforms are key to sustainably lift the standard of living, improve economic well-being and give people a sense of security. This means taking lasting measures such as promoting competition, enhancing flexibility, and spurring innovation. Scarce public funds should support the economy’s adjustment to new realities such as climate and technological change, including the artificial intelligence revolution. Only a solid foundation allows us to build for the future.
이 칼럼은 국제결제은행(BIS)이 한국경제신문에 독점 제공한 것입니다.
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